Uncategorized - Tom Kennett

November 14, 2024November 14, 2024Uncategorized

Advertisers return to X, as The Guardian leaves. What does this all mean?

I was on a client call earlier this week and someone said “it’s 7 weeks until January”, which is slightly terrifying, but also a timely reminder that we’re now right into trends season!

As with previous years, it’s quite hard to predict anything definitively new, but there are some interesting nuggets starting to emerge, notably with Hootsuite’s trends report this week. As with last year, I’ll pull together a concise compilation of the best trends in the next couple of weeks, so stay tuned for that.

But first: what on earth is going on at X?

X was always likely to play a prominent role in the news cycle regardless of the election result. However, even I’m slightly surprised at the level of chaos emerging; what does it all mean for the wider landscape?

Firstly – there’s every chance we’re seeing an exodus of users, although until X releases its next round of user figures we won’t know for sure. My own hunch is that most of the people who were going to leave and go elsewhere probably already have done, but we’ll wait to see what the data says.
That said, there were some high profile leavers this week; most notably The Guardian, as well as former CNN anchor Dom Lemon following a bizarre interview with Elon Musk.
Yet, the FT conversely reports this week that while we might be seeing an exodus of users, major advertisers are being tempted back to the platform in a bid to curry favour with Musk and, by extension, Donald Trump.

With Bluesky and Threads both reporting major surges in terms of usage, it all begs the question; what does this landscape now look like?

Where before there was just Twitter, now there are X, Bluesky and Threads, all largely competing for the same slice of the social media pie. My issue with all 3 platforms is that, at least within my own network, there’s not really enough going on with any individual app to make it feel worth my while. A lot of people I know have signed up, posted once or twice, and then never posted again.

Until Threads or Bluesky improves Daily Active User figures (which reflect my anecdotal musings), it’s hard to see either leapfrogging X.

Threads is likely to launch ads early next year. This should, probably, coincide with some above the line advertising (something that’s been absent when compared to Twitter or, a few years back, other Meta products), and this is a scrap I expect to heat up over the next year.

Hootsuite launches 2025 trends report

Hootsuite has launched its annual trends piece. I’m planning on taking a deeper look at upcoming digital and social trends over the next few weeks, but this will possibly make for some interesting reading in the meantime.

Key takeaways are:

Content experimentation is up, with brands foregoing long protected brand guidelines to do so
Brands are commenting elsewhere to grow outbound engagement
Apparently, social listening is launching social into a new era – though, given this is coming from Hootsuite, you’ll forgive me for taking that with a pinch of salt.
Oh also, AI is your new social media strategist.

Read the full piece here. Social Media Today also launched its trends piece this week.

What does Trump’s victory mean for the digital landscape?

Amid the geopolitical fallout from events earlier this week, the real question I’m sure you’ve been dying to have answered is “What does this mean for Meta!?!”

Well, this week, I’m aiming to answer that very question, as well as what it means for regulations around AI. Plus, there’s news from Australia, where under-16s will be banned from using social media and ChatGPT launching a search feature. Let’s go!

What does Trump’s victory mean for us?

Donald Trump’s vibe on social media, such as it is, is freedom of speech and deregulation around issues such as content moderation. Cynics will argue “sure, as long as he agrees with it”, and there are valid concerns around this – particularly in relation to some of Elon Musk’s behaviours.

But there’s more to digital and social platforms than content moderation; antitrust and dominance have been huge themes of Biden’s administration, and we’ll see changes here.

Of all the major platforms, Meta has been the most cautious and communicative in its attempts to moderate political advertising. However, Meta has faced far more scrutiny and antitrust measures under Joe Biden’s administration than it did under Trump. It’ll be instructive to see whether or not this stance continues over the next few months. I don’t see the platform easing up on content moderation, but at least targeting might be spared further governmental scrutiny and change.
Obviously, TikTok has had a turbulent year in relation to the incumbent administration, and Trump’s rhetoric last time around was indeed to ban the platform, largely due to national security. However, he’s since backtracked on this, and one has to assume many within owners ByteDance are quietly confident moving forwards.
Google is another big player with reasons for cautious optimism following Trump’s election. Trump has only recently commented on how Google has too much power, and has said in vague terms that he “would do something about it”, but he stopped short of any talk around a ban or a breakup. Indeed, Reuters reported this week that he’s expected to dial back existing Antitrust cases against the platform.
I wouldn’t expect any noteworthy changes for LinkedIn, while the biggest impact for Snapchat and Reddit would probably be less requirement for content moderation. The only challenge here will be what advertisers make of all of it, particularly on a youth dominated platform such as Snapchat.
And finally, we have X. You’ll already know that Elon Musk was a major supporter of Trump and, he’ll likely argue, a key factor in his victory. Anecdotally, just based on biographies I’ve read, he reminds me a little of a magpie and I can’t help but wonder if having a shiny new governmental role will distract his attention further way from X – which might, ironically, be good news for a platform which needs to rebuild bridges with sceptical advertisers. Musk might be further emboldened in terms of further rolling back content moderation, but I’m not even sure what difference that would make at this point.

What’s Trump’s view on AI?

AI is obviously one of the key themes to life in 2024 going into 2025, but it’s surprisingly one that we haven’t heard loads from Trump on. His previous administration generally supported AI in the context of American competitiveness (in 2019 they launched the American AI Initiative, to admittedly mixed reviews), but there wasn’t really much talk of regulation. But, in fairness, in 2019, discussions around AI regulation were minimal compared to 2024.

Previously, Elon Musk discussed his concerns about AI and how it needs to be regulated, so this could perhaps be a theme of life under Trump if he does indeed become something of a tech tsar. That said, on the campaign trail, Trump alluded to removing some of the AI-related policies either put in place or in development by the Biden administration. VP-elect JD Vance has taken a similar stance.

Quarterly Earnings Week: How are the platforms doing?

Happy Halloween! In a week where Russia imposed an Austin Powers-esque fine on Google so big that you’d literally need all the money in the world to pay it, there were more grounded financial stories in social media with a range of quarterly earnings. The near-term future looks incredibly bright for a few platforms, notably Reddit and Snap.

Elsewhere, Meta has made some significant moves this week, while there are a range of other updates from the wonderful world of digital. Let’s get to it!

‘Tis the season for Quarterly Earnings! These are always great points in the year to get an overview of the state of play for different platforms. The headlines were:

Reddit’s user growth and revenue surged in Q3, driven by growing interest in its ad offering. I’ve written before that I think this is under-utilised and considered by brands, so it’s great to see a few more taking advantage of the targeting opportunities. Verdict: Great!
Meta’s Q3 2024 earnings report showed a significant 19% revenue increase to $35 billion, driven largely by advancements in AI technology and ad sales. This increase seems to follow Meta’s successful integration of AI across its platforms, working to enhance ad targeting and performance. The jury’s still out on Advantage+ for more complex activity, but ad spend is clearly being poured into the platform. Verdict: Unconvinced, but the numbers are hard to argue with.
Investors were cautiously optimistic following Snapchat’s quarterly earnings reveal; there was a sizeable increase in paid subscribers, while revenue was up 15% with a reduced overall net loss. Shares were up 9%, which is a useful indicator that they had a good quarter. Verdict: A surprisingly bright future
Elsewhere, the big headline from Google’s earnings call is that YouTube’s ad revenue was up 12%. We’re seeing more and more digital ad spend diverted away from core platforms; YouTube, Snap and Reddit are hardly upstarts, but at least in my experience with clients, they often don’t form part of the core mix, so it’s interesting to see. Verdict: Google continues to dominate
Obviously in a new world order, X doesn’t need to do a Quarterly Earnings call, but one reveal from the Meta call was that Threads is apparently on track to overtake X next year in terms of active monthly users. I don’t necessarily see that in my own experience of using the platform (at least within my world, it only seems to be publications posting, rather than peers), but your mileage may vary. However, X is now reportedly worth less than Truth Social, so it definitely isn’t going brilliantly. Verdict: Uh oh

Meta developing AI-powered search engine

Meta made a couple of other announcements this week; firstly, that they are reportedly developing their own AI-powered search engine, aiming to lessen reliance on Google and Microsoft.

This pivot could reshape the ad landscape and diversify search options, as well as offering some potentially very interesting targeting opportunities for media buyers. There was also an announcement that a news-focussed AI powered chatbot will be powered by Reuters.

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